Redistricting efforts may increase Ohio Republicans control at federal level
Ohio Republicans are looking to redistrict the state.
The only question is: How aggressive will they be?
Currently, there are 10 Republicans and five Democrats serving the Buckeye State in the U.S. House of Representatives. However, Ohio lawmakers must redistrict before the 2026 midterms because the current map “passed without bipartisan support,” Punchbowl News reported.
“The nation may turn its focus to Ohio because the U.S. House of Representatives is so close,” Republican strategist Mark Weaver told Cincinnati.com. “It’s likely that there will be at least one more Republican from Ohio in the House of Representatives come 2027 when the new Congress takes the oath. It could be two.”
Republicans and their political action committees have made no secret about their desire to pick off seats held by Democratic Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Emilia Sykes. Kaptur represents Ohio’s 9th District in the northwest part of the state, while Sykes represents the 13th District in the Akron area.
Given the tight margins at the federal level, Ohio’s redistricting exercise looks to be watched by pundits and politicos nationally.
“It is no surprise national and state Republicans in Columbus are scheming to confuse and handpick voters by gerrymandering Ohio congressional districts again,” David Zavac, Kaptur’s political director, told Punchbowl News in a statement.
According to Signal Ohio, the Ohio Redistricting Commission passed the current map in March 2022 after making changes the Ohio Supreme Court ordered. Because the Republican-controlled redistricting commission passed it without any Democratic support, it expires in 2026.
In an interview with Punchbowl News, Republican U.S. Sen. Bernie Moreno said he thinks “we probably end up” with a 12-3 Republican majority and that it “reflects the state.”
“There’s a recognition that Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati, heavily Democrat cities, will probably be represented by Democrats,” he told the outlet.
The website reported that Republicans might attempt to draw districts that could lead to them capturing 13 seats, leaving Democrats with only two.
“I think instead of the ‘Snake by the Lake’ you’d have to draw the ‘Sliver by the River,’” one Republican told the site.
As CNN reported, U.S. Rep. Greg Landsman could be in trouble politically in that scenario. He represents Ohio’s 1st District, which includes the Cincinnati area.
“I think the Speaker and party leadership look at even a handful of districts as really important, particularly if the natural trend — given the president’s popularity at this point and given historic midterm conditions — means that the Republican Party starts out assuming they’re going to lose a couple districts right off the bat,” Justin Levitt, a Loyola Marymount University law professor, told The Hill.
“Ohio is going to have to redraw, one way or the other,” added Levitt, who created the “All About Redistricting” database. “Texas is mulling whether to redraw. And there are a lot of competing pressures.”
President Donald Trump won Ohio in 2024 with 55% of the vote.
There is some question as to the specific deadline for the new maps. However, WLWT-TV in Cincinnati reported that pundits agree that whatever maps are created will likely be deployed by next year’s primary.
What’s not in question is the fact that Republicans control the Buckeye State legislatively and judicially. Given the Republican control, Democrats don’t have many options to stop redistricting; however, they will likely make some noise in the process.
“The Republicans have this level of single-party control in the state precisely because they have drawn maps that favored themselves,” House Minority Leader Dani Isaacsohn, D-Cincinnati, told Cincinnati.com. “How do we break out of single-party rule? We have to end gerrymandering. In the meantime, we have to hope and hold the majority party to account that they will respect the makeup of the state.”
