Ohio budget director explains low sales tax numbers, says ‘the revenues are solid’

Ohio’s Budget Director Kim Murnieks said she is not concerned that total state taxes collected last month were down because there are only four months left in the fiscal year, and that the national and Ohio economies could explain the decline.

In its most recent published preliminary revenue data, the Ohio Office of Budget and Management showed that auto sales tax receipts for February totaled $134.3 million, down $4 million, or 2.9%, from estimates.

The data also showed that non-auto sales tax receipts totaled $804.2 million, down $69 million, or 8%. Meanwhile, income tax collections totaled $317.6 million, $33 million above forecasts, or 11.7%.

“Ohio’s fiscal outlook is strong, revenues are solid, and the budget is balanced as we enter the closing months of fiscal year 2026,” Murnieks said in a release.

Murnieks told WOSU Public Media that total tax receipts, based on the numbers for the fiscal year that started in July, now exceed the fiscal year-to-date estimate by $648.9 million.

“Receipts for the month of February came in right on target. They were just about $3.3 million above forecast in total for general fund tax revenues,” she said. “There were some variances across the major categories, but overall, the revenues are solid, and the budget looks good.”

Murnieks also said that she expected last month’s numbers because “February is often a lower revenue month on both the sales and income tax sides,” adding that sales taxes can drop if the weather is bad.

“So being a bit below estimate in February is not a concern,” she told the news source.

WOSU Public Media also reported that adult use marijuana taxes, a new category this fiscal year, have amounted to $33.8 million, which is 6.9% below estimates. Meanwhile, alcohol tax collections, at $45.6 million, are up 7.2%.

“For the smaller categories and for new categories, it can be challenging to estimate,” she said. “We really don’t have too much concern about the month-to-month data. We kind of watch the year-to-date and see where we are and where we’ll land as of the end of June.”

Meanwhile, a new report might also offer another potential explanation for why the numbers were so low. It found that Ohioans are increasingly spending a growing share of their income on housing. According to the 2026 Gap Report from the National Low Income Housing Coalition and the Coalition on Homelessness and Housing in Ohio, almost half of the 1.58 million people in Ohio who rent houses or apartments are allegedly paying more than they can afford for rent.