Ohio’s unemployment rate decreases, but so does its labor force participation rate

On the surface, the latest job numbers look positive for Ohio. However, the real story likely lurks beneath the surface.

While the Buckeye State’s unemployment rate decreased in November 2025 to 4.5%, down from 4.8% in September 2025, new numbers from the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services show its labor force participation rate also fell. Household data from October 2025 was not collected due to the federal government shutdown.

“Ohio’s delayed November jobs report continues the trend seen in the September report, with an improved unemployment rate of 4.5 percent—slightly better than the national average of 4.6 percent—and a downturn in the labor force participation rate to 62.3 percent—worse than the national average of 62.5 percent,” Rea S. Hederman Jr., executive director of the Economic Research Center and vice president of policy at The Buckeye Institute, said in a statement.

The numbers revealed that Ohio’s nonagricultural wage and salary employment increased by 3,100 over the month, and stands at slightly more than 5.7 million.

“Despite the improved unemployment rate, November’s private-sector employment is 14,000 jobs below August’s peak, confirming that Ohio’s job market is weakening,” Hederman added.

“The belated November report confirms that Ohio’s job market struggled in the fall of 2025, with private-sector employment falling since Labor Day and more Ohioans leaving the job market over the same period,” Hederman added. “What is unclear, and we won’t know until the December jobs report is released later this month, is whether Ohio’s job market has stabilized.”

Latest unemployment claims a mixed bag

Additionally, Ohioans filed 71,760 unemployment claims during the week of Dec. 28, 2025, to Jan. 3. That total included 63,296 continued unemployment claims last week, which was 8,123 more than the previous week.

Numbers from the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services reveal that Ohioans filed 8,464 initial unemployment claims last week, 1,999 fewer than the previous week. Of those, 1,299 were flagged for confirmation that they are legit.

Job creation has been a long-standing issue in Ohio, and several indicators paint a worrisome picture. Critics point out that JobsOhio, Ohio’s economic development corporation, hasn’t delivered on its job-creation promises.

“The decrease in Ohio’s unemployment rate, corresponding with an increase in employment and decrease in unemployment, is a positive sign,” Molly Bryden, researcher with Policy Matters Ohio, said in an analysis on the group’s website. “This improvement, however, is accompanied by mixed signals that may indicate underlying concerns. Ohio’s labor force participation rate has been weakening since June.

“The continued decline in labor force participation – along with the slowdown in job growth indicated by the business establishment survey – could signal ongoing economic challenges,” Bryden added. “Amid unprecedented economic uncertainty, the resilience of Ohio’s economy hinges on robust investments in supportive services for working Ohioans – like childcare, public transit, and apprenticeship training pathways – to draw Ohioans back into the labor force.”

People are fleeing Ohio

Consider the latest “Growth Index” from U-Haul. It indicated that Americans preferred to move pretty much anywhere else other than the Heart of it All.

The annual report, which examined more than 2.5 million one-way moving transactions, revealed that Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Tennessee, and South Carolina were the top destinations for people relocating. Conversely, states in the Northeast and Midwest, including Ohio, lagged.

A separate analysis from the Ohio Department of Development found that the state’s population is projected to decline by roughly 5.7%, or 675,000, by 2050 if current fertility, mortality, and migration rates don’t change.

“Ohio is currently the seventh most populous state,” according to the review. “Georgia and North Carolina will likely surpass Ohio in total population by 2030 or shortly thereafter. Ohio is expected to remain the ninth most populous state for many years beyond the scope of these projections.”

Census numbers reveal that in 1980, Ohio’s population was higher than Florida’s. Now, the Sunshine State has 82.5% more residents than the Buckeye State.

During that timeframe, Ohio’s population has grown by nearly 9.3%, while Florida’s has increased by 121%.

Unsurprisingly, the economy and opportunity look to be a central theme in the year’s gubernatorial race, pitting former Ohio Department of Health director Amy Acton against Cincinnati native and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.

“Hopefully, before the end of even a first term, it will be Texas and Florida following Ohio’s lead, rather than the other way around,” Ramaswamy told the crowd at a campaign rally in Cleveland this week. “It’s Ohio time now in the United States of America.

“Now there are those in places like California or New York or even our friends in Texas or Florida who will tell me, ‘You know, we like you and everything, but don’t get carried away. How could Ohio be that state in the United States of America?’” Ramaswamy added. “And I remind them that it was not long ago that Ohio was that state in the United States of America.”