Shock poll shows Democrats leading Ohio governor, Senate races

A new Fox News poll shows Democratic candidates holding leads in Ohio’s U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races despite the state’s recent Republican dominance.

The survey, released Wednesday, found former U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown leading incumbent Sen. Jon Husted 53% to 45%, while Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton held a narrow 50% to 49% advantage over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy.

The results come less than two years after President Donald Trump carried Ohio by more than 11 percentage points, highlighting a more competitive political environment than many observers expected.

Ohio has trended increasingly Republican over the last decade. Republicans currently hold almost every statewide executive office and maintain majorities in both chambers of the Ohio General Assembly, while Trump carried the state in each of his three presidential campaigns.

Brown’s lead appears driven in part by strong Democratic unity and support from some Republican voters. The poll found Brown receiving support from 98% of Democrats, while 31% of non-MAGA Republicans and 13% of Republicans overall said they backed the former senator.

Brown is seeking a return to the Senate after narrowly losing his seat to Republican Bernie Moreno in 2024.

Husted, who was appointed to the Senate after Vice President JD Vance vacated the seat, maintained strong support among White evangelical Christians, rural voters and White men without college degrees. Brown performed strongest among younger voters, independents and women.

The survey also found President Trump’s standing in Ohio has weakened significantly since the 2024 election. Forty-two percent of voters viewed Trump favorably, while 57% viewed him unfavorably, a sharp decline from the positive rating he received in Fox News’ post-election voter analysis in November 2024.

Pollsters suggested those numbers may be creating challenges for Republican candidates closely associated with Trump.

Some 46% of Ohio voters said they were concerned Husted is “too close” to Trump, while 39% expressed concern that Brown is “too liberal.”

In the governor’s race, Acton benefited from strong Democratic support and a modest advantage among independent voters. The former Ohio health director received backing from 93% of Democrats, while Ramaswamy was supported by 89% of Republicans.

The survey found evidence of ticket splitting among Ohio voters. Fourteen percent of Brown supporters said they planned to support Ramaswamy in the governor’s race.

Economic concerns remain the dominant issue for Ohio voters. Forty-three percent identified inflation as the most important factor influencing their Senate vote, far outpacing health care at 12%, immigration and border security at 11%, political divisions at 9%, and jobs at 8%.

Among voters who cited inflation as their top concern, Brown held a 14-point advantage over Husted. Meanwhile, voters focused on immigration and border security favored Husted by a wide margin.

The survey found growing financial anxiety among Ohio residents. Thirty-nine percent said their families are falling behind financially, up from 32% who reported the same in Fox News’ 2024 voter analysis. Nearly half said their financial situation is holding steady.

“There’s good reason for the Democrats to be bullish on Ohio,” Republican pollster Daron Shaw told Fox News. “The state remains solidly Republican, but Democrats are united against Trump allies and independents prefer Brown.”

Despite the poll’s findings, Republicans remain firmly entrenched in Ohio government, controlling the governor’s office and both chambers of the General Assembly.

The Fox News Poll was conducted May 28 through June 1 among 1,015 Ohio registered voters. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.